Finland, Nato’s newest member Both NATO and Russia have eyes on this Swedish island.Once inhabited by Vikings and as early as the eighth century, this piece of land is of strategic importance.That’s because it’s located in the center of the Baltic Sea and is on NATO’s European front line.

But it’s also the only waterway where Russia has direct access to the west. Gotland is just one small part of how NATO could benefit if Sweden and Finland become members of the block. Both nations have said they will take steps to apply for membership of the Western military alliance

But it is a very significant shift. These are two countries that have sought to take position of military non-alignment. – Finish and Swedish membership in NATO would greatly enhance the defense of the Baltic region and reduce the chances of Russian adventurism or attack across the air, land, and sea domains in an integrated fashion.

Analysts say the expansion of the block could make NATO stronger and affect Russia’s current strategy in Ukraine. To understand how, we need to look at the geography and military capabilities of both countries. The location of both Sweden and Finland would mean the Alliance has significantly more land in the east of Europe.

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Take Finland, for example. It has an 830-mile long border with Russia but if we look a little closer, we can see that this border is full of lakes and marshland with very few roads for military vehicles such as tanks to travel on. Analysts say those conditions would be beneficial for NATO in any potential combat situation with Russia. – From a NATO point of view, it’s a huge opportunity.

So you think about combat and Ukraine over by Kyiv, where Russia was trying to push down really narrow roads. That’s Finland. – [Narrator] One key area for Russia is the Kola Peninsula where Moscow houses sub-launched ballistic missiles that are key to its nuclear arsenal.

Currently, the only NATO country bordering the zone is Norway, but analysts say if Finland joins the block, it would increase pressure on the region. – So suddenly, if Finland’s having an exercise up here, it’s not just Norwegian forces, you know, maybe a brigade or two, now suddenly, it might be 50,000 troops. So again, Russia has to now divert troops up there.

In Sweden, Gotland is strategic for Russia because it could be a base to protect its naval forces in the Baltic Sea. – And they would use that as a base of operations for amphibious assault, for land attack, for air attack and for naval attack.

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In 2017, NATO and Sweden worked together on a simulated mission of a Baltic Sea attack which Alberque said concluded the island would be a central part of any invading strategy. (missile blasting) Although Finland and Sweden have been close NATO partners for decades and worked on such joint missions, they have remained militarily non-aligned.

For centuries, Sweden has largely avoided involvement in military conflicts while Finland stayed out of NATO after the Alliance formed in 1949, largely to avoid provoking Russia. – So the fact that they are deciding now to potentially join the Alliance, I think, is very significant and speaks to the sense of vulnerability that countries feel in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Russia’s invasions of Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014 sounded alarm bells in both nations but the current war pushed them to reconsider NATO membership. In response, Russia, which has long stood against any eastward expansion of the block has issued threats.

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According to the Kremlin, Russian President Vladimir Putin told the Finish president that ending the country’s decades-long non-aligned defense policy would be a mistake for Helsinki. And Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko said that Moscow would need to take adequate precautionary measures if NATO were to deploy infrastructure for nuclear weapons near Russia’s borders, including in Finland.

I think one of the reasons that we saw the invasion of Ukraine is because they are not a member of NATO and that, you know, Russia felt that they could, therefore, take the action they did without incurring a direct response from NATO. And so I think that is something that will be playing into Moscow’s of strategic calculus that once these states are, if they become members of NATO, then it will have to take a more indirect action.

The addition of Finland and Sweden to NATO would also enhance some of the block shortfalls in air defense, according to Alberque. – They do not have sufficient vehicle-mounted air defense systems. NATO air defenses, especially in the east are very, very weak, and again, this is a huge capability shortfall that NATO’s attempting to address.

Sweden’s advanced purchases of air-launched cruise missiles and Finland’s $9.4 billion purchase of 64 cutting edge US F-35 fighter jets would significantly improve NATO’s air defense and attack capabilities. And it could require Russia to add countermeasures to that potential threat, analysts say, spreading its resources thin while trying to establish air dominance.

But some analysts also believe that the introduction of Sweden and Finland into the block could fit into a broader plan by Russian President Vladimir Putin to realign his forces to different regions. – I think Russia thought a long time ago that Finland and Sweden would end up joining NATO. I think it helps Putin in terms of his messaging that NATO is scary so that he can divert resources from human development in Russia towards military.